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Previewing Minnesota United FC v LA Galaxy

Minnesota United's 53 regular season points were enough to bring about another historic, first for Allianz Field. The Loons host LA Galaxy this Sunday at 7:30pm for Minnesota's first-ever MLS playoff match. United has proven it can have knockout tournament success this season by virtue of its surprising run to the U.S. Open Cup final. Can the Loons find a way to continue this type of success in one off matches and make a run at MLS Cup? According to the Westgate Superbook, Minnesota is 6th most likely to raise the silverware in November. The Loons are currently listed at +1600 just ahead of their first round opponent, LA Galaxy (+2000). Supporter's Shield winners, LAFC are the odds on favorites at +150, and Bob Bradley's team sits waiting for the winner of the Minnesota-LA Galaxy match. The Loons are the slight favorite heading into Sunday's match-up on the Midway. So, can Adrian Heath's team prove the bookmakers right and advance to the second round?

To answer this question, let's take a look at the prior match-ups this season between Minnesota and LA Galaxy. While these games occurred early in the season, and much has changed with both sides since that time, these matches provide a window into how Heath and Guillermo Barros Schelotto will strategically approach their upcoming playoff clash.

Match-up #1

On March 17th the Loons traveled to California and lost to the Galaxy 3-2. Here's how the two teams lined up that day. The Galaxy utilized a 4-3-3 with Chris Pontius, Uriel Antuna, and Emmanuel Boateng up front, Sebastian Lletget, Jonathan dos Santos, and Joe Corona in the midfield, Rolf Feltscher, Daniel Steres, Diego Polenta, and Jorgen Skjelvik across the back, and David Bingham in goal.

Looking at the Loons starters we see a lineup from a lifetime ago. The left flank for Minnesota was patrolled by the combination of Rasmus Schuller and Francisco Calvo, and the double Ibarra formation was even in play. Heath played a 4-4-2 with Darwin Quintero and Romario Ibarra at the top, Schuller, Ozzie Alonso, Jan Gregus, and Miguel Ibarra in the midfield, Calvo, Michael Boxall, Ike Opara, and Romain Metanire on the back line with Vito Mannone in net. For the Galaxy, a lineup without Zlatan Ibrahimovic and pre-Christian Pavon is quite different from a talent perspective than what the Loons will see on Sunday, but Schelotto's formation and tactics have not evolved significantly. So, what led to the Minnesota loss that day, and could those same issues resurface?

The Schuller-Calvo combo played a significant role in the Loons dropping all 3 points. The Galaxy were able to generate 10 key passes and all three of its goals by exploiting Minnesota's left side. The first goal LA scored came on a dos Santos penalty kick that was awarded after Alonso fouled Antuna in the box following a dangerous cross in from Minnesota's left side. LA's other two goals came as a result of build-up play and an assist from LA's right attacking flank, Minnesota's left side. Additionally, LA out-crossed the Loons 33 to 22 that day with 25 of the Galaxy's crosses into the box coming from, you guessed it, the left side of the Minnesota defensive third. LA's strategy seemed clear. Exploit the Loon's left side. Ultimately, they did so successfully, and Minnesota conceded the 3 goals required for the Galaxy to take the 3 points.

From an attacking perspective, Minnesota did have some chances back in March. Gregus and a subbed on Angelo Rodriguez scored the two Minnesota goals. Gregus's goal came on a shot from distance that David Bingham would no doubt like to have back, and Rodriguez's goal came on a tap in after a great effort from Metanire to win the ball back and deliver a cross in to Abu Danladi for a header that struck the post. Minnesota only maintained 38% of the possession and any danger the team generated tended to focus on the right side with Metanire being a key cog.

Uncovering Heath's game plan from that day is not as easy as his counterpart when looking back at the data. Was Heath's 4-4-2 designed to be a sit in and counter set up? Probably. Was the plan to attack the Galaxy left flank with Metanire? Potentially. However, the Galaxy's ability to exploit the Minnesota left flank and penetrate that side of the field deep into the defensive third disrupted United's ability to effectively trigger the counter through Quintero. You might even argue the Loons were a bit lucky to get 2 goals on the day. According to American Soccer Analysis's xG model, Minnesota lost the expected goals battle, 2.75 to 1.41.

Matchup #2

Roughly one month later, the Galaxy visited Allianz Field for the second match-up between the sides. This time the Galaxy brought Zlatan but still did not have Pavon. The Loons had moved on from Calvo, but were still in a state of roster flux. Brent Kallman replaced Michael Boxall alongside Ike Opara and Eric Miller was deployed as the left back with the departure of Calvo. Heath played another version of his 4-4-2 this time with Darwin and Angelo leading the line. Danladi and Molino played the wide midfield positions while Schuller played alongside Alonso in the center of the park. Metanire, Opara, Kallman, and Miller made up the back line and Vito was of course in goal.

Schelotto appears to have tweaked his 4-3-3 to look more like a 4-1-4-1 allowing Zlatan to stretch higher up the field. LA's midfield included a bank of four (Boateng, Lleget, Corona, and Antuna) with dos Santos in a central holding position. The back line included Skjelvik, Polenta, Steres, and Araujo with Bingham again in net. Despite a formation tweak and the inclusion of Zlatan, Schelotto's overall strategy was the same. Attack the left side of the Loons.

The Galaxy could not muster a goal despite Zlatan's presence in the middle. LA still sent in 26 crosses with 20 of them coming from the Galaxy's attacking right, Minnesota's left. The key difference, the crosses did not find their target at the same rate of success. Of the 20 crosses that came in from the left defensive flank 4 were successful, and only 1 key pass was allowed from that location on the field. A month before, 8 of LA's crosses found their target and 10 key passes were generated from the left defensive third alone. Schelotto's strategy was mostly neutralized via capable defending.

While the Loons shut out the Galaxy, Minnesota could not find the net in April either. The Loons were out possessed once again, but the margin was not as large. Minnesota kept the ball 43% of the time compared to the 38% from a month before. The Minnesota attack was again, right side heavy with Metanire and Danladi bombing forward. This approach led to quality chances for Rodriguez that he was not able to convert.

Ultimately, the Loons out-shot the Galaxy 12-10 and earned 13 corners to the Galaxy's 6. Minnesota created its most exciting moments off these corners with Opara nearly getting two goals by winning aerial duels. In the end, Bingham was solid, and the Loons could not convert their opportunities. Once again, LA had sought to exploit the left flank of the Minnesota defense, but it was not as effective with Miller staying home and defending. Further, Kallman and Opara's willingness, and ability, to win the ball in the air and play Zlatan physically neutralized the Swede, and each team left with a point.

Since that match-up, LA has added Pavon and settled on a 4-3-3 formation that can be potent in attack. However, the Galaxy have not been able to keep from leaking goals against everyone. Most recently, with the ability to host a home playoff game on the line, the Galaxy conceded 4 goals to Houston (2 of which were scored by a certain former Loon) on Decision Day and 4 to Vancouver the week before. Conversely, Minnesota has only conceded 5 goals in its last 5 matches, and 4 of those matches were against Western Conference playoff teams. The issue for the Loons is their inability to score. In those same five matches, Minnesota scored 6 goals and was held scoreless twice.

My Prediction

So what is going to happen on Sunday with a date at Banc of California Stadium on the line? Based on the past two Minnesota-LA matches, and the changes to the Galaxy roster since their most recent trip to St. Paul, Schelotto will look to exploit a Minnesota defensive hole once again. However, this time he will tweak his approach to attack the Minnesota right flank. Why? The Galaxy will deploy their customary 4-3-3 with Zlatan leading the line. Chase Gasper's inexperience on the left would seem to signal a weak point, and lead to a third attempt at breaking the Loons down on the left. However, Antuna did not have much luck as a focal point in the buildup and distribution into Zlatan when the team's played in April and Miller was the target. Gasper is an upgrade and has proven he can keep the left side intact. More importantly, Schelotto has Pavon deployed on his left side, Minnesota's right. The Galaxy will seek to exploit Metanire's roaming runs forward with the skill and pace of Pavon driving into that area of the field and either playing balls searching for Zlatan in the box or attacking the center of the Minnesota defense on his own. This will likely stretch Opara out of the middle to stop Pavon leaving Boxall to defend Zlatan 1 v 1. My guess is LA will take their chances with that match-up, and Zlatan will constantly want the ball. The questions for the Loons then are can Metanire stay home or recover quickly enough to avoid that situation? If not, can Boxall handle Zlatan 1 v 1? One of those questions will need to be answered to effectively keep the Galaxy off the scoresheet.

Heath has had a far greater propensity to alter his formation based upon the opponent he is facing. In recent weeks, we have seen the 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, 4-4-2, and 3-5-2 all used against different opponents and in different situations. This has led to questions as to the team's identity, but it has also led to some surprising positive results. A further complication in predicting what Heath might do, his relationship with Quintero. Heath made headlines when he sat the DP and U.S. Open Cup Golden Boot winner for the final of that very tournament. Speculation as to Heath's reasoning for benching Quintero has been wide ranging. Regardless would Heath really bench Darwin in another must-win? Well, if body language and recent form is any indicator, he will likely at least consider the option.

Ultimately, Heath will resist the urge to send another message to his best attacking player, and he will start him. In fact, he will play him in his preferred central attacking/withdrawn striker role in a 4-2-3-1. Heath will pair that with the physicality and professional level experience of Angelo up top and hope to recapture some level of connection between the two. The rest of Heath's lineup is fairly predictable. Love it or hate it, Robin Lod starts wide left, and Finlay gets the call over Kevin Molino wide right. Heath will feel this is his best attacking lineup and will be hungry for goals against a lackluster Galaxy defense. Defensively, the Loons are settled. Opara and Boxall partner in the middle with Metanire on the right, Gasper on the left, Alonso in front of the back line, and Gregus patrolling the middle of the park. Heath will ask his team to play on the front foot, no bunker and counter this time around. The Galaxy simply do not have enough defensively to concern Heath, and the former scorer will see goals. He will put it on his players to provide.

Will it work? Yes and for two big reasons. 1) The streaky nature of the Minnesota attack is more likely to produce goals than the ineptitude of the Galaxy defense is to stop them. Allianz Field will be too energized, and the team will feed off of that. 2) Boxall will boss Zlatan. Yes, Zlatan is still an elite goal scorer. Yes, that Michael Boxall. However, Zlatan has feasted on MLS defenders who simply cannot match his physicality. Minnesota can. Kallman did in April. Boxall will in October.

Final Prediction.

Minnesota United 2 -€” LA Galaxy 1.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any sort of editorial or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions held by the editors of this site.

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